Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288a11ac6da2d1525b5e72802e8fd71afc05e847fab96d8762c36ff42bd3a0fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a4a…da84backed Yes | 0c | 51,299$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 28c | 1,010$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.94 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 961.09$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 759.27$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 498.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 452.95$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 73c | 366$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 361.56$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 18c | 325$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 21c | 321.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 22c | 308.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 21c | 262.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 224.9$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 167$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 162.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 155.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 143.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 134.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 129.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 128.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 121.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 103.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 24c | 102.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3276…dd01backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0a…7f1bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 21c | 95.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 86.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 85.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 26c | 83.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 82.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 82.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…365cbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 57.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 53.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 78c | 52.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 50.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 49.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 31c | 47.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 43.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 43.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 28c | 40.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 39.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 34.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f41…ba79backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 33.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…b8cdbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 76c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…96dbbacked No | 78c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 75c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…7afdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eae…0de0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.