Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaba44ac11ccafbc52ce3c2ee5d9df77f820c5ba4af31acef67e770d2509530a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 1,971$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 1,272$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 999.98$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.9 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 58c | 903.67$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.67 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 808.45$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 740$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…ba65backed No | 51c | 690.44$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 60c | 551.63$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.31 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 513.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 464.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 69c | 380.62$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 5c | 350.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 36c | 331.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 247.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 233.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 230.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 47c | 210.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 71c | 201.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 201.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 80c | 200.27$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 189$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 42c | 187$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 186.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 59c | 163.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 28c | 151.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 55c | 144.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 143.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 143.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 139.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 132.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 20c | 121.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 119.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 118.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 56c | 112.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 42c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 105.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 105.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 40c | 100.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 96.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 61c | 94.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 91.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 31c | 89.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 88.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…1942backed No | 28c | 85.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 71c | 83.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100f…48e5backed Yes | 79c | 81.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 31c | 71.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 53c | 70.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 19c | 70.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd5…358bbacked No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 45c | 69.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 49c | 66.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 79c | 65.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed No | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 19c | 52.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…b939backed Yes | 76c | 52.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 52.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 47c | 50.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 30c | 50.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 60c | 49.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 55c | 49.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 48.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 45.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 56c | 44.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…48dabacked Yes | 51c | 43.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 24c | 43.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 40c | 42.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 71c | 42.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 49c | 39.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…09f1backed Yes | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 72c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 53c | 33.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…1a10backed Yes | 66c | 32.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…0cd6backed Yes | 48c | 30.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 39c | 30.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.