Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x291e59535ad19c4dffe5ebda1eff377b70a5aa5799ad961cbd1f48ce9e41955e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 4c | 1,264$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 1,091$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,038$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.7 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 860.26$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 77c | 848.9$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 780.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 65c | 756.09$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 20c | 480.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 19c | 265.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 246.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 223.44$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 202.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 75c | 197.58$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 50c | 191.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 184.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 174.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 8c | 162.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 17c | 159.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 26c | 158.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 158.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 156.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 149.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 146.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 142.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 26c | 127.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 22c | 126.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 9c | 111.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 23c | 94.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 13c | 92.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 76.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 15c | 73.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 23c | 68.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 67.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 67.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 67.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 66.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 46c | 63.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 62.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed Yes | 66c | 60.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 77c | 58.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 25c | 57.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 56.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 50.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 45.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 25c | 45.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 79c | 43.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 46c | 40.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked No | 74c | 40.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 75c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 35.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…489dbacked No | 78c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 44c | 28.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 74c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.