NBA · resolved market
Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0c44c50ab027922571954881f022e40461134926b695ebf0dda297e5365ba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 10c | 31,139$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,206.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 14c | 3,622$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.77 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,650$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Yes | 15c | 2,262$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,948$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 1,347$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.42 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 11c | 1,212$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,167$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 1,124$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…0c86backed Yes | 3c | 1,098$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 20c | 961.57$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 18c | 691.85$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 630.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 13c | 591.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 12c | 565.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 23c | 458$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…acaebacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 12c | 382$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…30abbacked Yes | 22c | 353.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…5648backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked Yes | 24c | 235.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 160.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…e428backed Yes | 16c | 125.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 104$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 13c | 102.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…4822backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…4bd0backed Yes | 14c | 76.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 68.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 35.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 77c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-3?this page
- Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-0?No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-1?No won
- Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-1?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-2?Yes won
- Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.