TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timofey Skatovof Elias Ymer, Timofey Skatov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5031…1ffbbacked Elias Ymer62c4,006$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.74949%24 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Timofey Skatov35c1,650$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.9933438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Elias Ymer6c1,168$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.242,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Elias Ymer67c1,128$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.373,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Timofey Skatov38c1,056$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.681,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Timofey Skatov44c1,000$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.59,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Timofey Skatov38c987$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.941,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Elias Ymer61c846.64$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.454,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Timofey Skatov80c832.11$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Timofey Skatov34c789.53$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.724,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Timofey Skatov78c706.14$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.714,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Timofey Skatov38c698$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.761,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timofey Skatov38c544.81$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.782,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Elias Ymer61c544.07$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.883,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Elias Ymer18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9053043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Elias Ymer62c425$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.67450%37 W · 37 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Timofey Skatov67c413$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.81,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Elias Ymer27c409.8$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Elias Ymer40c409.2$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6322245.9%102 W · 120 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Timofey Skatov39c375.92$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.512,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Elias Ymer8c351.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.454,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Elias Ymer63c322$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.061,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Timofey Skatov38c316$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.921,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Elias Ymer64c299.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.991,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Timofey Skatov37c273.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.61,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Timofey Skatov65c261.75$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.278,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Timofey Skatov39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4127949.1%137 W · 142 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Timofey Skatov40c256.08$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.657,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Timofey Skatov38c245.72$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.353,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Timofey Skatov38c230$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.51,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Elias Ymer17c210.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.418,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Timofey Skatov39c200.6$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.372,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Elias Ymer62c200.4$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.252,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Elias Ymer47c200.24$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.238,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Timofey Skatov39c193$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.7381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Elias Ymer65c185.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4458857.7%339 W · 249 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Elias Ymer64c176.34$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8643553.1%231 W · 204 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Elias Ymer21c176$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.969824.5%24 W · 74 L-16.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Elias Ymer60c166.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005345.3%24 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-20.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Elias Ymer61c164.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063252.8%334 W · 298 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Timofey Skatov37c163.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.451,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52be…801ebacked Elias Ymer62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030749.8%153 W · 154 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Elias Ymer58c161.04$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.614,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Timofey Skatov39c151.76$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5778840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Timofey Skatov41c151.19$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7113247%62 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Elias Ymer39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5894447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Elias Ymer45c144.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.844949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Timofey Skatov42c143.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.811,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Elias Ymer61c134.53$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3522246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Timofey Skatov38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5858045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Elias Ymer62c130.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8139254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…b35bbacked Elias Ymer64c125.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Timofey Skatov41c124$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1689850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Elias Ymer37c120.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.881,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Elias Ymer58c111.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6745744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Elias Ymer62c110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.269253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Elias Ymer60c108.76$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.162,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…a806backed Timofey Skatov51c107.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8411336.3%41 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Elias Ymer38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3851445.5%234 W · 280 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Elias Ymer62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6259954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Timofey Skatov41c95.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.191,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Timofey Skatov39c94.28$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5145751%233 W · 224 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Timofey Skatov38c91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4296844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Timofey Skatov40c88.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8792237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Timofey Skatov71c85.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.71,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Timofey Skatov52c84.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.061,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Timofey Skatov54c79.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.514,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Elias Ymer64c78.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8943952.4%230 W · 209 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Elias Ymer36c65.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.851,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Timofey Skatov62c64.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.591,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Timofey Skatov40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.535457.3%203 W · 151 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Timofey Skatov70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Timofey Skatov40c59.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.991,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd2…f868backed Elias Ymer62c55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.16165.6%40 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Timofey Skatov57c50.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e3e…637cbacked Timofey Skatov40c46.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.955959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4563…5f7cbacked Timofey Skatov44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.453141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Elias Ymer61c44.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.182,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Elias Ymer64c44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1655748.8%272 W · 285 L+23.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Timofey Skatov37c41.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.861,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Timofey Skatov71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8992674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Elias Ymer64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528343.8%124 W · 159 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Elias Ymer63c38.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4567848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Timofey Skatov31c37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.531,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…5ceebacked Elias Ymer63c34.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Timofey Skatov40c34.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bb…7cefbacked Timofey Skatov45c33.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1136743.6%160 W · 207 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed Timofey Skatov40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1835641.3%147 W · 209 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Timofey Skatov37c29.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.741,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Timofey Skatov46c29.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751457.2%294 W · 220 L+29.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Elias Ymer59c28.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.663,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Timofey Skatov41c26.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8329237.3%109 W · 183 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Timofey Skatov53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.671,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Elias Ymer62c24.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0448245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Timofey Skatov47c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.226,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x326d…3584backed Elias Ymer59c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6218433.2%61 W · 123 L-40.4wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-42.3%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Elias Ymer60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.234851.1%178 W · 170 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Elias Ymer62c16.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2433558.5%196 W · 139 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5a9…3a77backed Elias Ymer62c16.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1611551.3%59 W · 56 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.