Premier League · resolved market
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8b703190e0525f0b20935a673b1c65dfad1d121e7623d15e8ac274ded8e637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 6,673$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.74 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 16c | 4,401$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.16 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…aecfbacked Over | 12c | 2,600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 2,040$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.45 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 18c | 1,632$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.76 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 17c | 1,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 15c | 1,119$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.51 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 641.39$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 16c | 629.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 472.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…ee7dbacked Over | 18c | 438.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 75c | 402.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 17c | 336.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Over | 15c | 332.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 74c | 249.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 23c | 248.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 24c | 235$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 18c | 223.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 18c | 202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Over | 17c | 130.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 18c | 122.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 16c | 64.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cec…a0abbacked Under | 79c | 32.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 79c | 31.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Wolverhampton Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
- Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.