Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6426b3f6dfe2a47187d3b19ca2f9a1d89dd222788ed438897cf6b85a99e0cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,191$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.37 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes | 57c | 936.46$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 906.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 598.85$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 520.8$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 54c | 485.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.37 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 467.52$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 15c | 402.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 364.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 61c | 329.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f38…5f7cbacked Yes | 64c | 313.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 294.45$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 269.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 35c | 246.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 243.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 240.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 34c | 236.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 27c | 234.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 226.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 224.29$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 223.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 214.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 203.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 199$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 198.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 194$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 39c | 185.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 178.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 168.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 163.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 26c | 161.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…ba17backed No | 44c | 148.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 56c | 146.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 144.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 140.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 138$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 132.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 25c | 124.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 11c | 116.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 114.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 109.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 42c | 100.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 99.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 97.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 96.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 30c | 96.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 95.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 95.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 38c | 93.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 87.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 86.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 12c | 85.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 53c | 84.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 56c | 79.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes | 30c | 73.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 73.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 72.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 71.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 34c | 65.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 62.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 56.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 54.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 53.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 51.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 37c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 45.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 45.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 45.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 25c | 40.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 40.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 58c | 40.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 39.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.