Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd38b1ae1d47a7f12de93ffde04d7f35ea5b3863f5c7e28bfa92510c1e1ef83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,760$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.57 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 520.8$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 516.39$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 33c | 468.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.77 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f38…5f7cbacked Yes | 54c | 275.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 52c | 251.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 239.01$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 231.11$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 223.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 222.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 214.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 202.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 44c | 170.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 165$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 160.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 147.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 45c | 140.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 140$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 134$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 43c | 133.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 133.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 132$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 18c | 128.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 41c | 127.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 127.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 46c | 122.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 114.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 114.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 79c | 114.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 112.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 105.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 42c | 104.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 92.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 33c | 90.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 79c | 90.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 53c | 82.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 54c | 81.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…efd9backed Yes | 38c | 80.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 38c | 79.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 79.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 76.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 75.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 74.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 73.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 71.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 70.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 66c | 70.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 28c | 69.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 40c | 62.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 60.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 60.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…b15dbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 52c | 51.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 51.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 47.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 33c | 45.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 45.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 45c | 44.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…9bfabacked Yes | 69c | 43.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 39c | 42.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 40.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 32c | 40.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 38c | 40.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 39.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…68cbbacked No | 55c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 38c | 34.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 61c | 34.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 33.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 33.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 32.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 37c | 32.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 33c | 31.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 31.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 30.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.