TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FOKUS Sakura vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FOKUS Sakuraof FOKUS Sakura, GIANTX GC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,535 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed FOKUS Sakura64c13,112$8,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,720.3325554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked GIANTX GC37c9,761$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,595.3828143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed FOKUS Sakura63c6,213$3,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.0319860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed GIANTX GC22c3,100$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6876541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked GIANTX GC36c2,986$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.846154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c76…c163backed GIANTX GC36c2,522$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.91070%7 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick28cpaid+205.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed GIANTX GC35c1,252$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.216847.1%32 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed GIANTX GC36c1,103$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3973240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7592…8c79backed GIANTX GC59c927.19$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked GIANTX GC36c904.64$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.6729733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FOKUS Sakura58c874.5$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.0456551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed GIANTX GC37c819.87$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4344342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed FOKUS Sakura62c799.97$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.9922449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd9e…8f17backed GIANTX GC37c662$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1944…8088backed GIANTX GC50c614.87$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FOKUS Sakura64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21614158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked FOKUS Sakura65c576.71$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.311464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+83.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked FOKUS Sakura65c568.34$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.344163.4%26 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed FOKUS Sakura65c475.64$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.449255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FOKUS Sakura64c472.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.1362856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked GIANTX GC35c465.2$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.823655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed GIANTX GC27c458.14$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7918735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6c…a2c3backed FOKUS Sakura56c445.78$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed FOKUS Sakura64c417$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1223055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed FOKUS Sakura60c413.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.947749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked GIANTX GC36c375$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1359737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed GIANTX GC36c370.95$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5419546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked FOKUS Sakura62c370$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.616241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed GIANTX GC36c363.89$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FOKUS Sakura69c356.49$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.641,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8307…7b45backed FOKUS Sakura59c343.27$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FOKUS Sakura64c338.12$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4493049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd098…8d1cbacked GIANTX GC37c325.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a9…e7d8backed FOKUS Sakura65c320$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+46.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed GIANTX GC17c310.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked GIANTX GC36c304.45$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+89.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed GIANTX GC51c294.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed FOKUS Sakura61c291.83$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.372544%11 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-35.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed FOKUS Sakura64c278$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0813848.6%67 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed GIANTX GC36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004940.8%20 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7699…2ef6backed GIANTX GC36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6109…0baabacked GIANTX GC36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed FOKUS Sakura29c276$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8523733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed FOKUS Sakura60c270.27$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1117948.6%87 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…6815backed GIANTX GC36c223.33$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked FOKUS Sakura58c221.5$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0940254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed FOKUS Sakura62c217.78$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6128252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked GIANTX GC31c211.49$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.361,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked GIANTX GC38c210$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.81,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FOKUS Sakura53c206.86$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.911,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffb9…2858backed GIANTX GC24c179.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed FOKUS Sakura63c179.14$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2863447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked GIANTX GC36c163.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9319551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e5b…fc11backed FOKUS Sakura52c163.27$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.272564%16 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed GIANTX GC20c161.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2715147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed FOKUS Sakura53c160.7$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0641835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked GIANTX GC38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed GIANTX GC30c147.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6269722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1b14…b8debacked GIANTX GC33c132$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed GIANTX GC36c120.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3839646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e9…39a0backed GIANTX GC36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbb…a2cdbacked GIANTX GC24c108.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.184942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed GIANTX GC42c101.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3813661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed GIANTX GC32c100.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1311246.4%52 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked GIANTX GC40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405054%27 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked FOKUS Sakura49c94.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0328743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed FOKUS Sakura63c94.12$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed FOKUS Sakura66c94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4174642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked FOKUS Sakura51c92.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick50cpaid-66.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1940…0ea1backed GIANTX GC36c89.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.134143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked GIANTX GC38c85.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.582334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked FOKUS Sakura61c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.594946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked FOKUS Sakura63c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked GIANTX GC36c77.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked GIANTX GC36c74.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.881643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2899…556cbacked GIANTX GC38c73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked GIANTX GC36c70.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3360154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed GIANTX GC38c65.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512640.5%51 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed FOKUS Sakura64c62.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.469355.9%52 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d33…6715backed GIANTX GC34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16536.9%24 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1585…c3b7backed GIANTX GC45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e4a…59d9backed GIANTX GC36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010543.8%46 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked FOKUS Sakura63c53.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8920051.5%103 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed GIANTX GC39c51.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked FOKUS Sakura60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209145.1%41 W · 50 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e55…a3fbbacked FOKUS Sakura63c47.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.887100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked FOKUS Sakura64c47.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.089455.3%52 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed GIANTX GC38c45.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.113141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FOKUS Sakura63c42.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6781134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FOKUS Sakura72c39.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.041,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed GIANTX GC36c39.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2515038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed FOKUS Sakura64c39.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.053850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb3e…db66backed GIANTX GC36c34.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2983…5623backed FOKUS Sakura59c34.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e91…391dbacked GIANTX GC37c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e03…ecbdbacked GIANTX GC37c32.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed GIANTX GC40c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.866438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0316…55e8backed FOKUS Sakura59c31.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed FOKUS Sakura58c31.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.096952.2%36 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7655…f0b2backed FOKUS Sakura65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.