MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ebd388dddd65d834eb7b04871991625299efe76ee7ee3cf4cb0e0f5d453ff9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 10,925$6,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 7,101$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 5,121$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 3,122$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 1,394$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.24 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 1,017$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.29 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 739.52$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 572.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 312.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 267.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 248$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 233.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 194$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 168.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 142$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 127$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 107.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 100.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 99.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 98.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 97.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 87.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 75.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 73.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 64.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 47.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 27.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.