Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fdafa815e578f0389d2e649711896cbe3fd316de3706d369c107796c15dc704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 791.87$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 43c | 327.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 280.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 256$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 226.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 217.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 54c | 205$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 28c | 190.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 8c | 189.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 69c | 178.43$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 169.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 164.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 152.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 152.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 150.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 24c | 146.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…fab1backed No | 79c | 146.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 75c | 129.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 31c | 110.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 30c | 98.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 88.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 23c | 87.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 33c | 82.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 52c | 82.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 71c | 75.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 36c | 67.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 62.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 71c | 60.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 68c | 58.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 71c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 42.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 76c | 39.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a7f5backed Yes | 36c | 35.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 44c | 33.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 45c | 29.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 71c | 26.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 23.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 18.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 14.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 78c | 13.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.