Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa32cee04469e6c489b82ca4b4af2ecf42dfb6b7dcda67c3c3a05cff2a790d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 47c | 739.64$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.02 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 370.11$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 296$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 198.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 171.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 61c | 161.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 44c | 133.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 130.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 55c | 122.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 121.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 115.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 113.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 37c | 109.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 51c | 108.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 93.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 57c | 90.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 82.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 67c | 82.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 46c | 74.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 47c | 71.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 68.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 66.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 42c | 55.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 47c | 53.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 43c | 48.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 47.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 46.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 68c | 45.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 42.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 42.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 49c | 42.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 53c | 40.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 46c | 34.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 33.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 72c | 32.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 30.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 46c | 29.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 29.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 26.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 26.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 22.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 22.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 48c | 22.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 49c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 56c | 18.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 72c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.