TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pirates vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Pirates, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$736,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$818,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $736,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 526 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd38a…8d26backed Pirates48c203,188$97,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,530.217652.8%93 W · 83 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Orioles52c59,932$31,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,767.5535854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Orioles52c45,280$23,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,734.316347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Orioles52c41,782$21,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,055.5144456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Pirates55c36,041$19,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,99230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Pirates33c35,248$11,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,761.331,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Orioles55c30,091$16,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,670.8448254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles49c30,060$14,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,446.641,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles52c21,797$11,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,462.531,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles52c18,571$9,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,914.3343949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Orioles52c18,493$9,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,876.651643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Pirates48c16,500$7,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,92025453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Orioles52c13,588$7,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,510.2963152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles58c13,035$7,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,534.451,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Orioles52c10,943$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,243.2126355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Pirates43c10,748$4,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,621.638043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Orioles52c10,394$5,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.327450%37 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabf4…43f7backed Pirates51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Orioles61c8,360$5,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.7821847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Pirates43c8,247$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.822040%8 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Orioles53c7,500$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Pirates47c7,405$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50011345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles54c6,680$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.522,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Orioles51c6,259$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.8753150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pirates26c5,957$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.6978445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Orioles52c5,844$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.254057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pirates46c5,800$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6681,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pirates40c5,713$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.5212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles59c4,600$2,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.112,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Pirates48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00022948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Orioles52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92015650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Pirates47c3,750$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.3238047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Orioles57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.9411554.8%63 W · 52 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Orioles64c3,360$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.3838751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Pirates44c3,111$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.9524253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pirates47c2,727$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.7660451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe829…f91cbacked Orioles56c2,679$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.572650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Orioles55c2,505$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.9773149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pirates48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles56c2,230$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.121,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Pirates49c2,194$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0761,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Orioles52c2,152$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.9620747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Orioles52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96098149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0364…f19bbacked Pirates46c2,000$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9251942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Pirates48c1,988$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.421,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Orioles52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.083855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles53c1,700$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7991,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Orioles53c1,575$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.4757744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Pirates33c1,557$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.7316654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pirates38c1,390$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.781,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Orioles60c1,375$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.1915642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Pirates47c1,328$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.1668769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Pirates23c1,262$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9315033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Pirates39c1,247$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.162759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pirates40c1,147$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.648,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…e2b9backed Pirates44c1,105$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b9f…ee40backed Orioles56c1,077$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe0…9c67backed Orioles56c1,073$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+63%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b63…d2cfbacked Pirates49c1,059$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.871546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e1…021cbacked Pirates44c1,045$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pirates50c1,016$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.946,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Orioles51c1,002$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.2926650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db7…d372backed Pirates49c887.76$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43513149.6%65 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pirates43c799.94$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9883248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f6…c600backed Orioles52c740.62$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Pirates29c728.46$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8270841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Pirates49c721.51$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.541,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles56c714$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.161,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles53c707.49$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33176456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles55c697$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.651,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240b…80a4backed Orioles50c651.97$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.971643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Pirates33c651.74$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.934531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pirates42c600.83$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3525551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Orioles54c599.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27632651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Orioles57c592.16$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.638562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles51c575.24$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9780955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Pirates45c526.37$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.711,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Pirates45c500.02$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.011,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Orioles52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Orioles55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22522142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Orioles54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23019747.2%93 W · 104 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Orioles56c499.83$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.933455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf76d…7c42backed Pirates41c487.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8950%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Orioles52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.777443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Orioles53c471.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.669657.3%55 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles65c460.16$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.884,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Pirates44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Pirates46c435.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006417.2%11 W · 53 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88f5…ee20backed Orioles80c427.2$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.551866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x869b…776cbacked Pirates49c424.98$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.241855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x670f…3f29backed Pirates48c422.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5311049.1%54 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pirates26c421.92$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.019,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pirates43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1723,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Pirates51c389.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Orioles52c376.75$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0414055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba56…b1e3backed Pirates48c364.58$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1755742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Orioles56c360.79$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7519852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Orioles56c349.95$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4835245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b2…4d4bbacked Orioles46c342.78$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.11353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.