NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305c7c55d40f9664a429893cac8602ece3ab55d65c52000cd9c030182c5bd0ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lions of Lions , Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Falcons | 0c | 10,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Falcons | 1c | 9,203$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…86f3backed Falcons | 36c | 5,797$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Falcons | 2c | 5,288$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Falcons | 1c | 5,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…43b4backed Lions | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lions | 64c | 3,627$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.88 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Falcons | 1c | 3,425$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Falcons | 29c | 2,090$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Lions | 62c | 2,000$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…2056backed Lions | 63c | 1,554$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Falcons | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Lions | 71c | 1,329$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Falcons | 36c | 1,326$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.19 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Falcons | 37c | 1,253$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.67 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Falcons | 2c | 1,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Lions | 64c | 1,148$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Lions | 70c | 1,040$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.27 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Falcons | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +889.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…bfcfbacked Lions | 63c | 999.98$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Falcons | 4c | 999.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Falcons | 37c | 869.74$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.56 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Falcons | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…bcabbacked Falcons | 37c | 731.39$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Lions | 64c | 623.75$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…b6c2backed Falcons | 29c | 413.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Falcons | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Falcons | 36c | 277.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Lions | 63c | 270.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Falcons | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Falcons | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Lions | 64c | 230$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b496backed Lions | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Falcons | 20c | 196.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Falcons | 32c | 182.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…a569backed Falcons | 37c | 178.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Falcons | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Falcons | 47c | 152.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Falcons | 47c | 151.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed Falcons | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ac…091ebacked Lions | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Falcons | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5414…e06ebacked Falcons | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Lions | 49c | 101.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Falcons | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Lions | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Lions | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Falcons | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Falcons | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Lions | 66c | 91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Falcons | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…2849backed Lions | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…6ab8backed Lions | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…56d0backed Falcons | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…667abacked Lions | 64c | 73.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…1c54backed Falcons | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Lions | 68c | 68.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Falcons | 47c | 64.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…b683backed Falcons | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked Falcons | 26c | 57.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…06cbbacked Lions | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Falcons | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Falcons | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Lions | 62c | 53.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Falcons | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed Falcons | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Falcons | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Falcons | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Falcons | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Falcons | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Lions | 61c | 33.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Falcons | 47c | 33.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Falcons | 32c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Lions | 48c | 23.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Lions | 64c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1e…7ba5backed Falcons | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Falcons | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Lions | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e1…0e40backed Lions | 65c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…07e0backed Lions | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.