TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x229c…b966backed No3c522.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c413.06$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f77…4b79backed Yes52c386.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.772937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No3c340.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210432.7%34 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes40c230.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes78c223.77$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7721150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No48c208.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.281,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed No52c197.16$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4523143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c180$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.795,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c167.81$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.822,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No44c158$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4664460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c156.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes75c156.74$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5138655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No33c154.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.654,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes64c149.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9918629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No54c142.14$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.161,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c140.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.629,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c123.08$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No48c122.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes66c122$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4861820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No60c121.46$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked No37c120.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.631,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c120$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes42c119.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3322446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c119$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No41c111.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.113,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No61c111.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No61c111.14$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes43c111.11$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No48c111.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.311,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No65c105.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9119648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes38c101.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2445540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3712934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes52c96.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5819551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No58c96.39$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3330442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes61c85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1516641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c84.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No48c79.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.883,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4325058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes56c75.23$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.133746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No39c74.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8934748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No38c74.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.052,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed No49c73.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.038250%41 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed No51c73.71$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.927263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked No70c71.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes39c71.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6723538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes56c70.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.894,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb912…7e38backed Yes30c65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No69c64.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No53c64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1358152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c63.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.284,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No60c63.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No54c60.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5919947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes43c60.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.317562.7%47 W · 28 L+10.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No60c58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7222550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd496…00ecbacked No43c57.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.923627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes52c57.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.138667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes43c56.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3853951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No70c56.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.430665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No49c55.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c55.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes72c53.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.242,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes52c53.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.535,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.765,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes55c52.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.816931.9%22 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No37c52.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes38c52.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.525350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No27c52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.084,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No42c51.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.311,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes32c50.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3618038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf2…e987backed Yes56c49.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked No42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No48c46.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.471,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes52c46.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.477855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c45.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No57c44.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6426744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70d2…2861backed Yes56c44.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes51c43.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes51c42.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9743848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No49c41.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.353258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No34c41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.924,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes39c39.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2717637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes51c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6247738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes34c35.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.299848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No45c32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3828660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82cc…d569backed No46c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5711173%81 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad43…196bbacked No62c31.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.791070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes52c31.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.061,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.93,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed Yes48c29.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4126861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No61c29.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0744567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes69c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb430…efc9backed Yes38c26.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.738231.7%26 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2751…d0b1backed No75c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.44346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.