Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d5eb4607a176660928d8aba864e0d8144f639840b5d47b53d034792aaf36ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 413.06$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 52c | 386.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.77 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 3c | 340.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 230.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 78c | 223.77$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 208.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 52c | 197.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 180$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 167.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 44c | 158$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 156.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 75c | 156.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 154.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 64c | 149.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 142.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 140.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 123.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 122.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 121.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 37c | 120.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 42c | 119.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 119$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 41c | 111.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 111.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 111.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 43c | 111.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 111.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 65c | 105.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 38c | 101.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 52c | 96.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 58c | 96.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 84.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 79.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 56c | 75.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 39c | 74.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 74.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 49c | 73.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 51c | 73.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 70c | 71.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 39c | 71.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 56c | 70.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…7e38backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 69c | 64.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 63.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 63.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 54c | 60.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 43c | 60.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 60c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 43c | 57.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 52c | 57.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 43c | 56.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 70c | 56.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 49c | 55.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 55.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 53.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 53.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 55c | 52.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 37c | 52.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 38c | 52.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 42c | 51.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 32c | 50.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…e987backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 52c | 46.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 45.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 57c | 44.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…2861backed Yes | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 51c | 43.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 51c | 42.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 49c | 41.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 39c | 39.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 62c | 31.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 48c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 29.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 38c | 26.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.