Fifa International · resolved market
Harry Kane: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3104ade32a92a254b5b4aee82ca638694762742362dda31317b84a143de7fe8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 11c | 3,257$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Yes | 11c | 2,276$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…370bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,103$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…cc0dbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 37.1%105 W · 178 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 315.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 27.2%34 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…a5a7backed Yes | 9c | 221.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…9c4cbacked Yes | 11c | 214.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 152 | 25.7%39 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4a…044ebacked Yes | 15c | 136.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…edd4backed Yes | 8c | 125.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 11c | 114.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 269 | 46.8%126 W · 143 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…d50fbacked Yes | 10c | 103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ca…5168backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…bd16backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…0fcbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 267 | 20.6%55 W · 212 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…3807backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…1e21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 441 | 44%194 W · 247 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…5c98backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…0dd2backed Yes | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsthis page
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 3+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsYes won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 2+ assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 2+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 1+ shotsYes won
- Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsYes won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 2+ assistsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 2+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on targetNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 3+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 3+ shotsYes won
- Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 1+ goalsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 2+ goalsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 3+ goalsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 1+ assistsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.