NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x315946def0dd7d75b179a429f914d1b8466ad2583153be5559a433f7108cc5fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Under | 52c | 39,779$20,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,992.99 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 23,845$11,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,490.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 51c | 19,623$9,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,693.73 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 10,683$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,127.69 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 10,312$5,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,004.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…6050backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…1ab2backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 7,801$3,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,744.67 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 50c | 6,540$3,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,270 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 3,948$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 3,770$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.29 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 3,676$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.04 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa368…d116backed Over | 49c | 3,418$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…ca51backed Over | 49c | 3,367$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 3,112$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.36 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 1,802$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.14 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 1,649$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 1,414$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 1,275$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.99 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 1,167$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.16 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 47c | 1,097$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.59 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 778.24$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 756.16$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 50c | 712.96$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.6 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 47c | 555.52$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.09 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Over | 20c | 500.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 488.69$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 54c | 337.24$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Over | 11c | 317$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…40a1backed Under | 64c | 309.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 281.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…b5b7backed Over | 50c | 256.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 49c | 214.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -12.5wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 47c | 191.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2985backed Over | 49c | 182.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…dc8cbacked Over | 53c | 166.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 155.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 53c | 143.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 126.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 19c | 99.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 268 | 24.6%66 W · 202 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 51c | 59.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Under | 53c | 57.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 49c | 51.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 53c | 48.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 272 | 46.7%127 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d35backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -76%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 47c | 37.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 49c | 31.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 40c | 27.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Over | 48c | 25.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 23.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 63c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.