NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x527404ce3e5f1fe0df9d8cc359f0e187a0ba855ba453f7356514f70009c38071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 43c | 4,713$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.05 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 3,197$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 2,698$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.82 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Over | 43c | 2,345$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.35 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 57c | 2,019$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.17 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 1,843$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.22 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 62c | 1,760$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 55c | 1,360$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.92 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 1,239$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,214$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 57c | 1,204$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.6 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 1,028$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.74 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 56c | 1,023$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.95 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Under | 55c | 905.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 58c | 775.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.86 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 733$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.17 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 643.5$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 44c | 569.67$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.57 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…b5b7backed Over | 47c | 423.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 43c | 386.39$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.83 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 322.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 271.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 46c | 257.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 36c | 254.36$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 37c | 201.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 38c | 197.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 44c | 191$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 116.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 107.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d6…f530backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 42c | 72.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 41c | 56.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 68c | 48.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Under | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 44c | 42.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 44c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Over | 35c | 28.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 49c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 27.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 26.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…279fbacked Under | 56c | 26.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.