NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d2f1791e75dd514da9190135aa3e945f821e2caacaa46f50286044e86c8391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 45c | 10,929$4,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,918 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 10,766$5,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,881.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 45c | 8,131$3,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.87 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 55c | 7,367$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.15 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 3c | 1,855$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 45c | 1,498$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.78 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 59c | 1,250$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 1,234$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.65 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 1,189$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 43c | 1,174$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.67 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 55c | 1,156$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.15 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 1,100$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.07 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 1,062$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.64 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 53c | 944.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.65 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 918.9$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 55c | 744$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.8 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 42c | 624.44$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.02 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 616.8$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…b5b7backed Over | 45c | 385.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 368.84$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 336.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.24 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 47c | 332$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 328.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 55c | 302.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 278.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 273.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 271.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 38c | 256.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Over | 28c | 232.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 218.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 45c | 213.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 189.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 68c | 147.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 113.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 45c | 110.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 55c | 110.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 53c | 82.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ba84backed Under | 56c | 70.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 61c | 70.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 54c | 65.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 44c | 64.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…5846backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…3faabacked Under | 54c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Under | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 63c | 27.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7262…c2f1backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 61c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 61c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 57c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.