TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Timberwolves, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$412,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$415,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Grizzlies48c101,972$49,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,746.0254539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Timberwolves52c80,918$42,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,077.6126253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Timberwolves53c52,271$27,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,50011457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Grizzlies48c40,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,80035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Timberwolves51c32,336$16,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,485.9922453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Timberwolves52c31,574$16,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,418.2892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Grizzlies48c26,542$12,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,802.0112639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves52c23,426$12,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,181.271,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Grizzlies47c22,314$10,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,831.51,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves52c20,358$10,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,560.999,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies49c18,016$8,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,198.712,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Timberwolves52c13,442$6,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,99016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Timberwolves52c10,485$5,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4526657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies50c10,432$5,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,255.12,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies47c7,118$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,772.3687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves52c7,048$3,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,633.64,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…be52backed Timberwolves52c6,791$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Grizzlies47c5,718$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.281,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies53c4,873$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,293.248,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Grizzlies50c4,786$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3931,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves52c4,019$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.641,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Grizzlies47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.989343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Grizzlies48c3,979$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.0836359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Timberwolves53c3,689$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.2542348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies47c3,379$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.886,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Grizzlies47c2,872$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.3434854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies51c2,771$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.664,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Timberwolves52c2,638$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.0113142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb44f…8c20backed Timberwolves53c2,547$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3502450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Grizzlies46c2,151$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.7624744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Grizzlies47c2,032$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.2137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Grizzlies48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Grizzlies51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Grizzlies49c1,985$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.1976249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2d…a88dbacked Timberwolves54c1,760$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.276439.1%25 W · 39 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies49c1,672$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.653,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves52c1,538$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.742,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Grizzlies47c1,512$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.3264944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Grizzlies48c1,417$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.679952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies48c1,354$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.863,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa368…d116backed Grizzlies48c1,354$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.942839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6241,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Timberwolves55c1,195$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.81,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Timberwolves52c1,165$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.5421937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Grizzlies47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.7524050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Timberwolves49c1,015$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.2337842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Timberwolves52c1,006$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.2720352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves51c956.08$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.65,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves51c830.88$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.614,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Timberwolves13c782.14$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9811855.1%65 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Grizzlies49c757.04$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.526336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd11a…09eebacked Timberwolves8c694.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410656.6%60 W · 46 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1863,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Timberwolves51c589.77$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.7187453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies48c584.11$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.464,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Grizzlies47c546.81$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.8132450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…ee95backed Timberwolves51c510.8$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Grizzlies64c509.11$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0613154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Timberwolves48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Timberwolves44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014248.6%69 W · 73 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Timberwolves20c480.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9718055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Timberwolves54c464.81$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25119756.3%111 W · 86 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Timberwolves15c419.04$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6115253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dc…ab58backed Grizzlies48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20810251%52 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Timberwolves54c369.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Grizzlies47c339.32$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3545151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Timberwolves52c306.51$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.398055%44 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Timberwolves52c303.86$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.724946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Timberwolves53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac8…9e67backed Timberwolves51c280$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.818543.2%80 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Grizzlies61c275.89$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5391846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Grizzlies48c275.18$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0951146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9700…df3cbacked Grizzlies49c269.71$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.555151%26 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies49c247.42$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.113,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Timberwolves53c246.38$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5847852.9%253 W · 225 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Timberwolves50c238$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1192,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Timberwolves53c235.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12526048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves51c228.16$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.423,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Timberwolves52c223.63$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Timberwolves52c215.47$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0522746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Grizzlies56c211$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8454351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves38c210.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.071,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1b…5afdbacked Timberwolves49c204.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002065%13 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Timberwolves52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Timberwolves52c194.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9123147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves52c192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.841,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Timberwolves53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x666f…9860backed Timberwolves51c179.12$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.696055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Grizzlies51c160.25$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5276552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves52c160$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.295548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd506…4f0ebacked Grizzlies59c158.51$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.591973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Timberwolves33c150.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016725.7%43 W · 124 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Grizzlies52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7249351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Timberwolves51c141.03$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.259455.3%52 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5302…0a6fbacked Timberwolves53c140$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.211957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves75c136.15$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.111,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Timberwolves49c132.65$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659550.5%48 W · 47 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0180…c759backed Timberwolves52c131.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.661266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Timberwolves49c123.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0289853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.