TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Timberwolves, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,576 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves42c3,382$1,437 inLost-$1,437.175,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Grizzlies47c3,000$1,410 inWon+$1,59033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Timberwolves51c2,625$1,338 inLost-$1,337.791,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Grizzlies52c2,195$1,142 inWon+$1,053.2329243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Timberwolves48c1,833$880 inLost-$88024942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Timberwolves49c816.33$400 inLost-$400837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Timberwolves48c625$300 inLost-$30018448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Timberwolves48c585$281 inLost-$280.7395651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies50c400$198 inWon+$2023,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Timberwolves48c210.74$102 inLost-$10287049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies52c150.15$78 inWon+$72.074,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Timberwolves42c87.67$37 inLost-$37.231,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Timberwolves42c47.62$20 inLost-$209550.5%48 W · 47 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves43c46.65$20 inLost-$20.062,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Timberwolves42c36$15 inLost-$15.1262049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Grizzlies52c30.77$16 inWon+$14.7774547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Timberwolves43c27.9$12 inLost-$1237845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Timberwolves46c26.66$12 inLost-$12.261,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Timberwolves42c24$10 inLost-$10.0827345.1%123 W · 150 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.