Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a2005ddf13de8bf226247e728bfab7f0dab8e59b89e2d20515a4812bb4894d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 553$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 327.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 23c | 253.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 35c | 178.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 172.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 156.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 141.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 51c | 132$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 131.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 9c | 124.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 107.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 63c | 105.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 101$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 97.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 94.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 86.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 84.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 84.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 79.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 36c | 75.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 69.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 64.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 62.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 54c | 53.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 52.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 51.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 44.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 70c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 39.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 49c | 33.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 71c | 33.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 31.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 36c | 30.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 30.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 41c | 30.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 44c | 27.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 57c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 64c | 25.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 25.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 25.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 25.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 22.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 22.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 64c | 15.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 71c | 14.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.