Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31df18898f6bae2f2952e7740a5249d7a9f947b971dae5a19a198198f86fcf99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 47c | 2,234$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.37 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 1,667$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.76 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,398$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 1,116$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 1,076$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.33 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 36c | 921.33$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.81 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 805.16$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.3 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 802.88$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 756.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 752.2$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 591.22$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 459.59$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 429.02$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.61 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 394$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 378.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 51c | 269.63$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 212.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 210$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 210$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 190.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 185.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 176$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 22c | 168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 156.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 149.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 138.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 137.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 62c | 130.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 125.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 25c | 125.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 33c | 123.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 37c | 120.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 113.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 112.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 106.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 67c | 106$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 64c | 84.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 84.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 84.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 83.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…7c01backed Yes | 56c | 77.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 76.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 24c | 76.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…6d5abacked Yes | 44c | 74.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 72.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 66.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 60.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 56.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 37c | 44.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 61c | 44.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 35.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 73c | 29.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…09dbbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Yes | 42c | 27.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 73c | 24.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 59c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 58c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…dc6dbacked No | 63c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 66c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.