Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x107ea4a7c7a313d8b21ba782d64caf5eb771ae2bfa9f97d2e22acec7d5d4d910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 2,060$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 66c | 1,104$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.23 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 889.23$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 601.7$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 579.19$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 519$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 33c | 512.2$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.78 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 417.94$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 382.82$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 48c | 357.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 299.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 10c | 293$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 263$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 248.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 43c | 234.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 9c | 229.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 218.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 182$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 163.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 160.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 65c | 137.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 135.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 46c | 133.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 38c | 129.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 126.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 50c | 126.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 124.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 50c | 119.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 115$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 112.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 95.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 86.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 82.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 47c | 81.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 61c | 78.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 38c | 72.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 67.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 60.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 34c | 56.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 53.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 78c | 48.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 47.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 46.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 32c | 42.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 40.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 50c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 57c | 33.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…9215backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 42c | 27.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 52c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…2444backed No | 57c | 20.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.