TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes50c2,060$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.624,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed No66c1,104$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.2311148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c889.23$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No60c601.7$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.482,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c579.19$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.934,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes49c519$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.711,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf381…40c2backed Yes33c512.2$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.789436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No56c417.94$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.391,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No56c382.82$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.814,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No48c357.51$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.671,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c325$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes34c299.24$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.552,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No10c293$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c263$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.645,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c248.64$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.658,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes43c234.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.076854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No9c229.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes39c218.25$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c182$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.514,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c163.21$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.624,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No50c160.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.151,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes65c137.33$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3519137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c135.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.26,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes46c133.51$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.693,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes38c129.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6417352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c126.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes50c126.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.213542.2%57 W · 78 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes31c124.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes50c119.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.619042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c115$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.643,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c112.94$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No38c110$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.31,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c109.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes40c105$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6454735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.193452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c95.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.644,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.563,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes29c86.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.541,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes59c82.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No47c81.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0663323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked No61c78.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4812072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No17c76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes35c75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes38c72.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0547136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c67.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.085,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No52c65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.117658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes45c60.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.463,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.616453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.944,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes34c56.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.472,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No66c55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.251,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c53.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3323941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes78c48.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.861361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c47.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.088,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes38c46.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8262137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed Yes32c42.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5319965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes38c40.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.132,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked No62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.815630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes50c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5219345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No67c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.452,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd160…9837backed No57c33.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No61c32.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No65c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.728360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f3…9215backed No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes42c29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.823,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes42c27.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.155438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes38c27.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8930136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes52c26.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6731943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.672,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2534628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed No64c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3542036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c90…2444backed No57c20.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.255261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.442366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.246857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3edf…e863backed No66c19.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.874050%20 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.