TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LNG Esportsof Oh My God, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$311,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Oh My God41c51,207$20,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,995.0155955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed LNG Esports59c27,059$15,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,108.651,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…204cbacked Oh My God40c16,529$6,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,601.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed LNG Esports59c14,631$8,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,998.7159450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed Oh My God41c13,935$5,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,713.421137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed Oh My God3c13,332$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.2816511.5%19 W · 146 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed LNG Esports58c10,704$6,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,541.771,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed LNG Esports57c10,506$5,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,533.1782352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Oh My God6c9,799$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.1825143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Oh My God40c7,057$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.212,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Oh My God42c6,756$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.6932440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56e…2d64backed Oh My God45c6,328$2,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.497248.6%35 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed LNG Esports59c6,252$3,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.1553750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed LNG Esports58c4,998$2,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.323,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed LNG Esports59c4,992$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.491,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LNG Esports60c4,880$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95254756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Oh My God20c4,468$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.2119041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked LNG Esports59c4,186$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.3867250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LNG Esports59c3,971$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.31,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Oh My God41c3,940$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.485836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked LNG Esports59c3,902$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.0970456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked LNG Esports66c3,373$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.8657246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6dd…edafbacked LNG Esports67c3,300$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.7813165.6%86 W · 45 L+16.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed LNG Esports59c3,208$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.1513135.1%46 W · 85 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked LNG Esports58c3,000$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2559129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed LNG Esports59c2,986$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.0652848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked LNG Esports52c2,941$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.1823252.6%122 W · 110 L+20.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Oh My God47c2,693$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.387358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Oh My God40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Oh My God40c2,359$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.617133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Oh My God17c2,250$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37542924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LNG Esports61c2,148$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.582,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LNG Esports58c2,107$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.011,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Oh My God40c1,982$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.695847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Oh My God25c1,750$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.8335431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Oh My God44c1,619$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.3316346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Oh My God44c1,546$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.351,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed LNG Esports59c1,500$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.51,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Oh My God38c1,493$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.6232844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Oh My God45c1,336$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.2369539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Oh My God50c1,321$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.6250749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Oh My God3c1,298$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2744120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed LNG Esports66c1,279$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.3412970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Oh My God43c1,250$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.51,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Oh My God7c1,208$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6514228.2%40 W · 102 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Oh My God41c1,179$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.4473237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed LNG Esports58c1,090$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.6971249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed LNG Esports59c1,055$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.4586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked LNG Esports79c1,031$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2518357.9%106 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Oh My God41c1,026$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.8596250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd6…1582backed LNG Esports73c983.5$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.23959%23 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Oh My God46c979.26$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.461936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Oh My God44c966.25$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.7449549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Oh My God16c949.6$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.949938.4%38 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5263…3e5dbacked LNG Esports60c805.66$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.048964%57 W · 32 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Oh My God42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3364546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed LNG Esports58c792.83$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.991,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed LNG Esports60c780.8$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3282953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Oh My God13c770$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.137633.5%126 W · 250 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Oh My God48c755.58$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.8310346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed LNG Esports72c733.89$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.856547.7%31 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed LNG Esports63c733.29$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3432160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Oh My God42c729.74$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4935243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked LNG Esports59c729.27$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.91,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Oh My God41c705.8$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.381,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Oh My God41c705.8$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3819745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Oh My God10c700$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.51,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Oh My God39c640$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.62,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Oh My God46c631.04$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2828553%151 W · 134 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Oh My God43c622.15$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.537330.1%22 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Oh My God46c602.73$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8650549.3%249 W · 256 L+2.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed LNG Esports60c585.6$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.241,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Oh My God40c555$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4771…8055backed LNG Esports72c546.65$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.742979.3%23 W · 6 L+6.5wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+43%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9179…2f34backed LNG Esports64c538.91$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4737161.7%229 W · 142 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked LNG Esports60c526.55$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6298956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0d…5960backed Oh My God15c523.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.66639.4%26 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Oh My God46c520.63$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.491,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Oh My God44c517.64$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0956432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5309…6cdebacked LNG Esports60c510.19$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.546246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed LNG Esports59c504.34$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6421948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed LNG Esports59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20529952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked LNG Esports59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20567549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Oh My God2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102323.9%9 W · 223 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed LNG Esports59c499.4$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.768633.7%29 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked LNG Esports59c497.45$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9628852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb063…fa55backed LNG Esports60c488$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.25759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Oh My God47c484.1$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.531,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Oh My God41c482.3$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.741,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Oh My God42c463.82$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9911753%62 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Oh My God41c462.04$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4423559.6%140 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Oh My God48c432.02$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6643542.8%186 W · 249 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed LNG Esports58c418.91$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9449461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed Oh My God23c407.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.430348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Oh My God53c402.07$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1246257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Oh My God42c400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked LNG Esports79c396.29$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8436660.1%220 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…d5c5backed LNG Esports60c395.46$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.353941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed LNG Esports55c394.27$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1254246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80c…d40cbacked Oh My God49c394.09$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.