MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3314a21ac6f1b1ef0ae929fc054ab52133c2f11c2e5befa26f27f44d415321d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 50c | 40,256$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 15,310$7,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,248.9 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 10,695$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,347.72 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 10,557$5,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620.29 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 5,277$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 5,010$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505.25 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 46c | 3,241$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.33 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,902$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.82 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 2,382$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.36 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 2,281$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.95 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 31c | 1,291$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 1,227$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 1,170$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.15 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 47c | 1,095$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.65 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 46c | 1,088$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.38 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 1,057$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.22 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 845.24$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.62 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 676$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.47 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 645.25$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.38 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 50c | 603.84$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.92 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 52c | 519.23$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.23 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 31c | 506.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 52c | 462.98$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.27 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 456.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.99 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 422.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…e7e0backed Over | 62c | 390.4$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 31c | 314.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 226.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 191$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 12c | 190.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 56c | 190.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 182.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 35c | 164$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 58c | 139.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 134.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…6a5dbacked Over | 50c | 128.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 118$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 43c | 116.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 30c | 92.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 49c | 81.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 51c | 75.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 53c | 72.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 72c | 55.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 31c | 52.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 53c | 51.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 48c | 51.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…faeebacked Over | 50c | 41.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 41.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 31c | 39.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 57c | 35.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 52c | 35.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 52c | 29.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…a566backed Over | 54c | 29.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 46c | 26.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 61c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…b1d0backed Under | 73c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.