Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332e76729ad3c5d9902bbfaaa9510e8e292916e968e857496a34983e6e6c03f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 381.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 304.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 297.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 49c | 268.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 263.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 62c | 260.58$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 254.11$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 214.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 208.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 61c | 207.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 41c | 202.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 66c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…8206backed No | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed No | 52c | 199.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 48c | 195.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 183.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 62c | 160.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 64c | 156.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 58c | 154.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 140.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 130.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 45c | 130.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 128.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 35c | 128.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 119$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 77c | 117.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 53c | 109.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 69c | 106.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 63c | 102.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 76c | 102.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 101.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…76e9backed Yes | 65c | 95.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 93.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 89.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 15c | 77.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 42c | 72.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 72.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 70.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 67.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 63.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 23c | 63.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 48c | 62.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 61.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 48c | 61.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 41c | 60.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 60.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 48c | 58.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 53c | 57.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 50.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 48c | 48.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 44c | 46.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 44.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 52c | 36.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 65c | 35.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 40c | 34.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 44c | 33.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 32.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 75c | 27.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 39c | 27.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…d248backed Yes | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 52c | 19.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.