Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8139e911d3ba97bc5e1598058529f252c43808b8d337ce656110c01eda77d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fb4…76e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 49c | 396.69$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.87 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 41c | 379.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 309.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 301.19$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 299.23$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 258.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 191.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 187.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 50c | 183.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 175$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 131.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 128.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 64c | 128.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 44c | 124.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 106.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…8206backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 86.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 81.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 19c | 78.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 77.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 75.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 75.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 72.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 70.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 69.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 49c | 67.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 66.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 51c | 60.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 60.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 60.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 49c | 57.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 55.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed No | 61c | 43.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 43.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 49c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 47c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 42c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…d248backed Yes | 42c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…f9bdbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 63c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.