Tennis · resolved market
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x337038a237d38e73dfa99170a873b597808d8e3975ecfeb4349872717e4d6fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clement Taburof Rio Noguchi, Clement Tabur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Rio Noguchi | 58c | 9,035$5,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,249.07 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Clement Tabur | 47c | 7,127$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.02 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Clement Tabur | 59c | 3,634$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rio Noguchi | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Clement Tabur | 40c | 2,494$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.29 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Rio Noguchi | 38c | 2,447$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.94 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Clement Tabur | 53c | 2,061$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.87 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Clement Tabur | 48c | 999.99$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.91 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Clement Tabur | 59c | 986.12$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.29 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Rio Noguchi | 51c | 980.37$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Rio Noguchi | 56c | 899.99$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Rio Noguchi | 19c | 628.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Rio Noguchi | 25c | 503.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Clement Tabur | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rio Noguchi | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Rio Noguchi | 60c | 493.36$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Rio Noguchi | 52c | 405.09$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Clement Tabur | 43c | 403.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…b9febacked Rio Noguchi | 5c | 361.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 320 | 8.8%28 W · 292 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Clement Tabur | 65c | 290.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Clement Tabur | 65c | 248.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Clement Tabur | 42c | 232.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Clement Tabur | 44c | 225.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Clement Tabur | 47c | 219.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Rio Noguchi | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 308 | 44.5%137 W · 171 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Clement Tabur | 42c | 189.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Rio Noguchi | 53c | 187.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Rio Noguchi | 57c | 176.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Clement Tabur | 53c | 166.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 280 | 48.9%137 W · 143 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Clement Tabur | 61c | 164.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 306 | 42.2%129 W · 177 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Rio Noguchi | 61c | 163.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Clement Tabur | 61c | 162.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Clement Tabur | 42c | 161.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Rio Noguchi | 52c | 157$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clement Tabur | 70c | 155.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rio Noguchi | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Clement Tabur | 51c | 140$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Rio Noguchi | 9c | 136.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Rio Noguchi | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 8.6%19 W · 203 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Rio Noguchi | 49c | 124.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Clement Tabur | 61c | 122.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Clement Tabur | 63c | 121.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Clement Tabur | 49c | 114.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Rio Noguchi | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Rio Noguchi | 44c | 112.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Clement Tabur | 45c | 109.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rio Noguchi | 42c | 106.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Rio Noguchi | 46c | 104.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Clement Tabur | 48c | 96.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 401 | 61.1%245 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Clement Tabur | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Clement Tabur | 51c | 93.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Clement Tabur | 39c | 92.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Clement Tabur | 65c | 82.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Clement Tabur | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Clement Tabur | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Clement Tabur | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…065abacked Rio Noguchi | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Rio Noguchi | 52c | 64.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Clement Tabur | 55c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e8…c85fbacked Clement Tabur | 71c | 55.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Clement Tabur | 45c | 55.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Clement Tabur | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Clement Tabur | 41c | 47.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rio Noguchi | 57c | 43.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Rio Noguchi | 53c | 41.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Rio Noguchi | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Clement Tabur | 61c | 37.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Clement Tabur | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Clement Tabur | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Clement Tabur | 42c | 30.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Clement Tabur | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rio Noguchi | 53c | 28.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Clement Tabur | 42c | 26.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Rio Noguchi | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…5c74backed Clement Tabur | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Rio Noguchi | 59c | 22.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed Rio Noguchi | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Rio Noguchi | 51c | 19.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Rio Noguchi | 52c | 19.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.