NBA · resolved market
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338aac9d49da4f8f2dabe87c2e28a96057bc1d3de5bb94c7153621c086d2ddab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,920 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 68c | 1,336$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.99 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Yes | 31c | 973.2$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Yes | 33c | 636.36$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…9faebacked Yes | 27c | 382.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 315$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 72c | 261.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 74c | 209.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 31c | 208.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 70c | 203.55$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…c4b8backed Yes | 27c | 183.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…563fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 70c | 109.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…1ca6backed Yes | 29c | 60.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…72eebacked Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…bd81backed Yes | 31c | 45.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 28c | 43.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 69c | 39.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 60c | 37.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 70c | 30.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 74c | 29.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. RocketsRockets won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.