NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1aa355e0522a323a7c7ec5b4e31d470078a379048306f2b37ca9782be130da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,080 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 5,532$2,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 47c | 5,500$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,705$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 1,458$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.23 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 470.88$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 52c | 430$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 385$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 229.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 54c | 139.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 129.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…a9e6backed Under | 50c | 98.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 91.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 74.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 55c | 73.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 44c | 63.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 63.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…d62dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 47c | 48.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 52c | 46.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Under | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c000backed Over | 66c | 36.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Under | 30c | 33.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 50c | 27.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 51c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…0781backed Over | 50c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Raptors vs. RocketsRockets won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.