NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e89efbcd365b956027564a3855a1b89e9837421590f904ad9e5072b6be1cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,737 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 15,086$7,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,241.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.99 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 48c | 5,788$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.18 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 48c | 5,182$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.31 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 52c | 5,070$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.6 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,857$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 1,566$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 57c | 1,556$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.74 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 1,062$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.12 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 52c | 1,017$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.2 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 753.98$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.61 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 679.25$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 196.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 47c | 192.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 53c | 185.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 80c | 171.26$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 44c | 130.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…6778backed Over | 77c | 109$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 106.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 282 | 43.3%122 W · 160 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 53c | 98.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 94.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 89.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Over | 52c | 51.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 52c | 49.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 48c | 49.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c000backed Over | 56c | 39.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Under | 53c | 37.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Over | 48c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 51c | 27.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Raptors vs. RocketsRockets won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.