TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
The Huns Esportsof The Huns Esports, Fisher College
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Fisher College35c7,906$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7703,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed The Huns Esports65c6,163$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.4120554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f14…1262backed The Huns Esports63c4,888$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.493268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Fisher College37c4,555$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.6359839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked The Huns Esports47c4,385$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.4219540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked The Huns Esports64c3,823$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.791,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked The Huns Esports66c3,145$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.3327552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x835b…6f16backed Fisher College35c3,019$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.653748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed The Huns Esports61c2,782$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.661,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Fisher College21c2,611$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.330726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked The Huns Esports66c2,586$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.763060%18 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Fisher College39c2,236$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.9146345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed The Huns Esports64c2,000$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7302,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed The Huns Esports66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68016653%88 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed The Huns Esports56c2,000$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.7628960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fisher College33c2,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.951,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed Fisher College34c1,828$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.44427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Fisher College33c1,734$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.4353746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Fisher College35c1,693$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.863541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Fisher College34c1,683$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.7321655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed The Huns Esports54c1,537$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.343544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Fisher College37c1,400$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.51,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8f…2c72backed The Huns Esports65c1,292$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.4928056.4%158 W · 122 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Fisher College28c1,253$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.464,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed The Huns Esports50c1,250$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62518356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Fisher College40c1,238$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49520041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fisher College22c1,157$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.912,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed The Huns Esports66c1,105$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.6626650.8%135 W · 131 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Fisher College24c1,062$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Fisher College55c1,050$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.7960248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fisher College40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b21…4b63backed The Huns Esports64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36011947.9%57 W · 62 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Fisher College53c999.98$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.991,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Fisher College33c940.44$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.0540140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Fisher College29c925$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7229831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Fisher College40c892.54$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.016,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked The Huns Esports64c852.38$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.4755843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked The Huns Esports76c840.78$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0541069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Fisher College37c835.27$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.212,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed The Huns Esports57c830.01$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.794,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Fisher College33c800.73$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.42,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked The Huns Esports56c778.64$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.4120935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Fisher College38c768.1$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7340148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Fisher College40c764.45$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.24,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked The Huns Esports65c757.9$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.55,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed The Huns Esports66c749.59$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9864058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed The Huns Esports56c747$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.785,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed The Huns Esports69c743.95$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1220251%103 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Fisher College38c734.92$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9255043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed The Huns Esports63c733.9$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.4112651.6%65 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked The Huns Esports48c700$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36494645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Fisher College21c700$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.461,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Fisher College35c647.62$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7444343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked Fisher College35c645.6$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.962835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked The Huns Esports66c630.34$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.422,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Fisher College31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18624939.8%99 W · 150 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed The Huns Esports65c579.36$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.781,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Fisher College50c567.54$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.031,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked The Huns Esports65c558.33$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.421471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Fisher College39c513.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Fisher College36c512$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.326747.8%32 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fisher College46c508.77$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.82,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed Fisher College34c505.93$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.011050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed The Huns Esports66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1708933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed The Huns Esports55c456$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1938868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed The Huns Esports66c454.42$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.573458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Fisher College52c405.83$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.031353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed The Huns Esports64c389.45$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.216761.7%103 W · 64 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked The Huns Esports79c381.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1825070.8%177 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe230…913dbacked Fisher College22c378.14$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked The Huns Esports54c354.9$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.252,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Fisher College53c353.5$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3617055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa033…4938backed Fisher College35c352$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.28545.9%39 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef9…d6e9backed Fisher College36c327.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1184928.6%14 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Fisher College35c318$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.072147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Fisher College26c311.7$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8146042.8%197 W · 263 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Fisher College29c307.52$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8548319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed The Huns Esports66c300.7$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5127459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed The Huns Esports53c300.08$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0434848.3%168 W · 180 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked The Huns Esports67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.511764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked The Huns Esports67c293.33$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1740950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Fisher College52c282.79$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4816155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed The Huns Esports71c278.28$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5223072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed The Huns Esports51c266.85$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7519329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed The Huns Esports65c249.99$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8735861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Fisher College40c244.75$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.782,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Fisher College53c240$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.255738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Fisher College38c239.14$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.41,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Fisher College50c226.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Fisher College31c207$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1784037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b67…e56cbacked The Huns Esports64c206.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.392445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fisher College33c204.69$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.192,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fisher College37c204.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.94,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked The Huns Esports64c202.18$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7811148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Fisher College35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7037232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked The Huns Esports48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1048664%55 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f79…abbbbacked Fisher College9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187018.6%13 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed The Huns Esports72c177.7$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6467372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Fisher College42c175$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.062,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked The Huns Esports64c171.01$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0131451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.