NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35235981e452e94d432772b0110c77ee54d5ac21a98b905d4cc5279299a69d15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Jazz, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Jazz | 36c | 4,189$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.3 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 65c | 3,056$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 65c | 828$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic | 71c | 198.74$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 65c | 192.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…678abacked Jazz | 27c | 122.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Jazz | 32c | 118.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Magic | 62c | 100.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Magic | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Jazz | 35c | 98.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Jazz | 28c | 85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Jazz | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Magic | 65c | 72.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…5692backed Magic | 42c | 68.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Magic | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Magic | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Magic | 56c | 33.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Jazz won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Jazz won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jazz vs. MagicMagic won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Under won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Jazz won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.