NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62f246b8a1dc8b00bb543438933c3655a51029347abcb4600910f5d96b953d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Over | 51c | 33,504$16,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,520.59 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 50c | 12,856$6,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,431.96 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 10,488$5,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,139.13 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 10,181$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,988.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 51c | 8,919$4,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,572 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 49c | 5,214$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.38 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 1,922$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 49c | 1,575$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.25 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 1,414$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 50c | 580$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 50c | 505.6$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 350.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.18 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 241.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 21c | 195$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 36c | 185.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10a…7ee7backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 119.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 232 | 46.1%107 W · 125 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 56.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3393…3519backed Over | 54c | 48.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Under | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…23d7backed Over | 50c | 29.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 51c | 23.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Jazz won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Jazz won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jazz vs. MagicMagic won
- Jazz vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Under won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Jazz won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.