NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356367dad919c7b16090f8afd9962ae2deb86b3c092ce7ef064a284bf4da3a75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 8,712$4,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,041.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 58c | 3,928$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 48c | 2,710$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 53c | 1,039$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.9 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 816$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.68 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Under | 48c | 739.29$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.86 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Under | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 43c | 715.05$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.58 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 57c | 715.05$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.58 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 53c | 573.22$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 48c | 512$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 403.27$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…741ebacked Under | 48c | 374$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…c80cbacked Over | 53c | 374$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 273.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 53c | 218.15$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 48c | 172.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 67c | 162.83$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 33c | 162.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 45c | 132$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 106.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 48.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…73fbbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 52c | 35.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 54c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked Under | 48c | 24.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 49c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. PistonsPistons won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.