NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x103d5f68f9a054cdebfa672bc09b6486d6407979935493412b01f37326994359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 60c | 2,905$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.47 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 44c | 2,745$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.66 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 2,388$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 2,276$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.99 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Over | 63c | 1,867$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.11 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 1,233$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 1c | 1,085$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 36c | 1,037$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.07 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 877.78$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 38c | 675.1$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 409.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.03 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 391.02$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 36c | 357.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 62c | 320.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 65c | 308.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 260.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 43c | 197.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…2e27backed Under | 45c | 183.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 61c | 181.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 180.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a9…591fbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 40c | 176.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Over | 57c | 175.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 65c | 149.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 148$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 57c | 140.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457f…cf1dbacked Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 40c | 110.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 76c | 109.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…b03bbacked Under | 41c | 105.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 37c | 83.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…7877backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 62c | 80.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 55c | 58.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 61c | 57.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 59c | 48.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 40.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…6575backed Over | 70c | 36.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 39c | 31.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 62c | 31.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 38c | 30.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked Under | 43c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 47c | 26.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…89edbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 53c | 22.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Under | 53c | 22.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. PistonsPistons won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.