NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f2c11551e03b015d60a233e5e0011751494d65ed8b03c75e865f7aa4212f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 53c | 9,882$5,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,643.56 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 46c | 4,158$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.03 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 55c | 3,212$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.36 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,995$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 1,190$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.77 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 41c | 1,182$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.47 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 52c | 1,151$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 46c | 938$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.9 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 46c | 786$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.56 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 46c | 786$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.56 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 42c | 534.09$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.75 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…f5abbacked Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 48c | 412$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 353$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 64c | 256.55$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Over | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 226.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 153.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 46c | 141$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 43c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Under | 47c | 93.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…c668backed Over | 56c | 89.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 57.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 43.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Under | 46c | 42.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 57c | 34.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…93a8backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…50acbacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…4430backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…e03bbacked Under | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…6575backed Over | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 57c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 59c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. PistonsPistons won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.