TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No53c528.56$280 inWon+$248.941,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes47c374.12$176 inLost-$175.8450346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No49c299.98$147 inWon+$152.9956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes52c271.76$141 inLost-$140.8110636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1495…d3f9backed Yes51c213.04$109 inLost-$108.6515048%72 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No47c132.45$62 inWon+$70.290863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No47c103.11$48 inWon+$54.845,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No52c99.99$52 inWon+$4841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…40d8backed Yes53c91.68$49 inLost-$48.592339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Yes48c62.97$30 inLost-$30.2314649.3%72 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No47c50.84$24 inWon+$26.9576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes48c50.46$24 inLost-$24.2266046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes37c49.98$18 inLost-$18.2562047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Yes51c47.72$24 inLost-$24.2612548%60 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No48c42.63$21 inWon+$22.0126957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Yes30c36.69$11 inLost-$10.9223741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed No63c31.25$20 inWon+$11.719952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a9…44d3backed Yes52c30.15$16 inLost-$15.5328455.3%157 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes53c27.5$15 inLost-$14.5812050%60 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9698…de01backed Yes53c27.36$15 inLost-$14.5826757.3%153 W · 114 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.423651.7%122 W · 114 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No67c16.37$11 inWon+$5.49100%9 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.