TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 107.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,977 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over51c10,000$5,100 inWon+$4,90032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under49c4,176$2,046 inLost-$2,046.2918749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e01…0875backed Under49c3,957$1,939 inLost-$1,938.83943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdef3…bc68backed Under49c1,959$960 inLost-$959.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c600$306 inWon+$2941,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Under45c213.93$97 inLost-$96.713246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over55c207.88$114 inWon+$93.541,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Under49c196.75$96 inLost-$96.411,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over51c194.12$99 inWon+$95.128148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3048…057fbacked Under55c99.99$55 inLost-$54.9911850.8%60 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under49c82.4$40 inLost-$40.3813047.7%62 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under32c75.01$24 inLost-$23.6362047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over71c60.9$43 inWon+$17.6345445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under49c59.13$29 inLost-$28.9862049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Over50c48.5$24 inWon+$24.256241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over60c46.78$28 inWon+$18.6676653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over45c42.98$19 inWon+$23.649748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under52c42.7$22 inLost-$22.21,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under49c42.54$21 inLost-$20.8440546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under34c40$13 inLost-$13.4723741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over74c39.94$29 inWon+$10.471,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Over45c32.23$15 inWon+$17.739949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under52c25.28$13 inLost-$13.153,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed Over50c24.25$12 inWon+$12.131866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.