TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$241,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac25…433fbacked Raptors49c55,555$27,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,332.918038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Raptors50c52,465$26,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,357.4512639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers50c30,170$15,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,132.874,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Cavaliers51c21,353$10,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,890.1310949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Raptors49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.9649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Cavaliers0c18,579$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Raptors48c13,855$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,204.41,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Raptors49c12,425$6,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,292.851,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers51c11,821$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,028.691,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Cavaliers51c9,516$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8534847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Cavaliers52c8,255$4,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,292.76045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers51c8,067$4,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,113.1193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98da…a9ebbacked Raptors49c6,863$3,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,524.697041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Cavaliers50c6,363$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.64951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers51c5,910$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.3490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Cavaliers50c5,071$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.811,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Cavaliers53c4,973$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,622.5322036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf3…4918backed Cavaliers50c4,867$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.73933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Cavaliers51c3,806$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.211249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers51c3,627$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.851,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Cavaliers51c3,500$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78530448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Raptors46c3,340$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.621,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Cavaliers52c2,950$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.9412646%58 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Cavaliers51c2,911$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.6132351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Cavaliers50c2,910$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4559945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Raptors50c2,910$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45546145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Cavaliers51c2,855$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.98347%39 W · 44 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Cavaliers51c2,493$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.677156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc3…ff02backed Raptors49c2,429$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Raptors56c2,379$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.1773649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Cavaliers50c2,244$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.8315545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Cavaliers51c1,923$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.7210046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers51c1,903$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.712,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Cavaliers51c1,824$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.4110256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Raptors53c1,519$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.7769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers45c1,443$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.842,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Raptors49c1,435$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.61,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Cavaliers51c1,412$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.271,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d35…96afbacked Raptors50c1,358$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6793138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Cavaliers51c1,309$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.7713644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Raptors49c1,294$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.5662051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers42c1,260$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Cavaliers51c1,165$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.016031.7%19 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Cavaliers50c1,078$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.0445251.1%231 W · 221 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Cavaliers52c1,040$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.817637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers51c1,029$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.44,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Raptors49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.252951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers51c982$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.821,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Raptors50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48516050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors54c963.29$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.039,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Raptors52c859.4$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.4189850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Cavaliers51c842.81$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.4995452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Cavaliers51c832.78$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.3316642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x010f…6c1abacked Cavaliers51c761.25$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.242846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers47c672.38$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.513,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69c…890ebacked Cavaliers51c622.71$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.581560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Cavaliers51c612.24$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.1727645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Cavaliers50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Cavaliers51c595.95$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.9317052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers43c588.78$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3661638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Cavaliers51c570.94$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1829848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Cavaliers52c560.31$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.361154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Cavaliers44c529.97$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5956043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Cavaliers51c495.01$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4525550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Raptors50c484.5$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.255044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5303…83e6backed Cavaliers53c458.4$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.956647%31 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…5a74backed Cavaliers52c446.75$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.317554.7%41 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Cavaliers32c399.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1285225%13 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1969…076abacked Cavaliers51c391.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Cavaliers52c388.48$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.017247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd7…eac9backed Raptors50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1945440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f61…f488backed Raptors50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1949642.7%41 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9857…a505backed Cavaliers51c380.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.125633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Cavaliers52c373.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.243948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers48c368.07$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.085,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Cavaliers53c364.17$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4238453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc766…1533backed Cavaliers50c348.02$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.633938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca7…f067backed Cavaliers48c305.25$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Cavaliers52c291.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5141227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Cavaliers51c291.18$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.524946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Raptors49c290.52$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1762744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea4…ea06backed Cavaliers51c274.62$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.063956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7521…c083backed Cavaliers51c266.44$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.884734%16 W · 31 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cavaliers50c258.83$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4132045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Cavaliers52c256.96$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6272250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Cavaliers52c242.8$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2642853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Cavaliers51c242.59$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7542348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Cavaliers52c237.31$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237946.8%37 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Cavaliers46c234.69$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8531953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers50c231.47$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.876,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Cavaliers49c227.45$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.021,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Raptors53c215.84$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.552,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd47f…169bbacked Cavaliers48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.884854.2%26 W · 22 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-24.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Raptors48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9565649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b01…dee1backed Raptors49c197.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.99454.3%51 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Cavaliers51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0610745.8%49 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Cavaliers52c189.04$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.344740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d95…2342backed Cavaliers52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.127250%36 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…dcb0backed Cavaliers53c183.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.