TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes48c204.65$98 inLost-$98.2393145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No52c200$104 inWon+$9656050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No49c109.93$54 inWon+$55.985,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4325…39b8backed Yes51c106.58$54 inLost-$54.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No52c99.99$52 inWon+$4841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed No52c50.92$27 inWon+$24.3240750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes48c50.46$24 inLost-$24.2266046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes35c50$17 inLost-$17.3362047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f7…5bd7backed Yes48c48.43$23 inLost-$236540%26 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce4b…3c4fbacked Yes48c40.37$19 inLost-$19.381428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed No65c33.41$22 inWon+$11.8220558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x07cf…7436backed No53c25$13 inWon+$11.753246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No52c25$13 inWon+$1290863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.