NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 20.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe453ae2b9edb41214942837c4426798a9df30917ad05443e7ae944d4c08b69ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 43c | 1,147$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.11 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 56c | 749.09$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 45c | 541.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.69 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 55c | 395.53$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Yes | 43c | 339.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 49c | 291.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 57c | 276$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed No | 57c | 171.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 160.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked No | 57c | 153.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 57c | 114.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…d4d7backed Yes | 53c | 98.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 57c | 95.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 74c | 68.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb98…3e81backed Yes | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 57c | 58.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed No | 57c | 51.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…40d8backed Yes | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c50…14dfbacked Yes | 44c | 41.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 57c | 40.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 47c | 39.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked No | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3957…1608backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed No | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 47c | 29.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed No | 54c | 28.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 57c | 26.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4504…e61cbacked Yes | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…9344backed Yes | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes | 48c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 57c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked No | 57c | 20.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…3eabbacked Yes | 52c | 19.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…6593backed No | 57c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 54c | 19.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 0.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 12.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.