TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,895 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fc4…db58backed Yes60c3,161$1,891 inLost-$1,890.672236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No39c3,017$1,167 inWon+$1,850.1939265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacc9…c790backed Yes67c554.27$371 inLost-$371.3614731.3%46 W · 101 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yes3c549$16 inLost-$16.4778639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No40c502.2$201 inWon+$301.651,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ca7…e965backed Yes60c231.85$139 inLost-$139.033253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked No40c200$80 inWon+$12010645.3%48 W · 58 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21fb…e2ddbacked Yes67c188.73$126 inLost-$126.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed Yes60c162.9$98 inLost-$97.597051.4%36 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No40c152$61 inWon+$91.227059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No40c125$50 inWon+$7597049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed No35c96$34 inWon+$62.454443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No41c73.13$30 inWon+$43.1592058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No41c60$25 inWon+$35.430256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe868…958abacked Yes67c43.89$29 inLost-$29.41128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No37c43.47$16 inWon+$27.4729449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed No36c43$15 inWon+$27.5214753.1%78 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d3…47e9backed Yes73c33.69$25 inLost-$24.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Yes59c33.06$20 inLost-$19.5120146.8%94 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No41c28.28$12 inWon+$16.7414359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.