Earnings · resolved market
Will Key (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b9b17c74855c6d49cf333fd6ac6d8cb5d4b72d96d870d59771dab259fa6e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 8c | 1,750$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 29c | 828.04$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 649.71$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.52 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 21c | 486.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 478.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 72c | 416.97$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 27c | 373.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked No | 23c | 276.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 59c | 262.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 70c | 239.21$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 58c | 208.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 73c | 184.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 79c | 176.54$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 26c | 166.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…bfa8backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 30c | 116.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 107.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 77c | 104.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 98.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 63.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 31c | 62.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 20c | 59.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 26c | 55.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked Yes | 69c | 41.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 70c | 39.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…0972backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…50bdbacked Yes | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…7eaebacked Yes | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…e006backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 56c | 23.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 63c | 23.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…8614backed Yes | 72c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.