MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x373730c5dac76438d841a4b3187e9c479fa252b5dd925788c4bc36c13bd79c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 48c | 42,938$20,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,387.58 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 17,796$9,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,254.95 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 9,042$4,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,682.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 56c | 5,396$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Over | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.99 | 247 | 39.3%97 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 48c | 3,188$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.83 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 2,466$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.02 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 2,207$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.32 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 2,077$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,354$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.92 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Under | 47c | 1,211$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 944.4$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Over | 53c | 943.39$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.97 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 775.53$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.12 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 47c | 706.28$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.95 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 55c | 495.09$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Over | 38c | 397.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 49c | 372.9$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.72 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 334.02$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 258$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 55c | 250.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 189.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…1c15backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 54c | 176.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 53c | 150.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 148.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 133$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 52c | 128.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 23c | 126.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 27c | 121.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 118$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 111.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 52c | 92.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…fc71backed Over | 53c | 91.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 44c | 91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 51c | 76.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 53c | 68.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 66.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 64.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 58.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Over | 53c | 56.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 41.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Under | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 40.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Under | 46c | 39.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 34c | 36.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Over | 53c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…faeebacked Over | 48c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 52c | 28.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 55c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…51bfbacked Over | 52c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 20.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 53c | 18.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.