Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37775e08cb2a56cae297e8f70110ea2ef4f2ba21e6b29a81758991dfecac96d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 5c | 10,358$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.33 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 9,549$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 8,932$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.55 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed No | 6c | 7,471$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…b570backed No | 9c | 5,460$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 2c | 3,075$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 12c | 2,367$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.41 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 1c | 2,119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 11c | 2,060$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 18c | 1,850$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…1dafbacked No | 4c | 1,732$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 1,449$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 2c | 1,416$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 2c | 1,345$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 78c | 1,250$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…5e13backed No | 4c | 1,131$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +634.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked No | 2c | 1,039$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…c7f3backed No | 2c | 1,020$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 12c | 986.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 5c | 822.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 4c | 730.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 4c | 622.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed No | 3c | 519.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…d1b7backed No | 2c | 443.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 7c | 395.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 16c | 360.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 7c | 322.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 30c | 285.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 70c | 284.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…d3eebacked No | 10c | 280.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 73c | 275.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…917ebacked No | 13c | 275$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 15c | 257.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 5c | 241.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 22c | 239.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb33…c3d6backed No | 16c | 208.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…e00abacked No | 7c | 194.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 21c | 193.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 74c | 181$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…1eabbacked No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa2…8696backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…242abacked Yes | 80c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.