Dota2 · resolved market
Aurora to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37c780bebaa3fc49f21f60b73f50d626da820b0c9dd15eebfce87af48f8805d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5dab…22e1backed Yes | 49c | 47,102$23,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,008.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed No | 51c | 30,289$15,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,544.41 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No | 50c | 6,480$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 46c | 5,498$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.27 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 49c | 5,254$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.75 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 48c | 4,701$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.38 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 46c | 3,429$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 51c | 1,460$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.98 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed No | 55c | 1,454$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 28c | 1,428$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.77 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 886.21$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.83 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed No | 50c | 857$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.5 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 50c | 813.88$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.94 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 58c | 802.43$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.02 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 673.89$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.49 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 62c | 519.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 58c | 510$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 68c | 405.27$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa5…05bbbacked Yes | 50c | 401.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.44 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 65c | 355.97$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Yes | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 57c | 323.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Yes | 45c | 271.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 65c | 250.69$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…e432backed Yes | 44c | 219.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 57c | 215.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 45c | 205.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 51c | 199$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 198.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 51c | 194.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 52c | 182.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 62c | 181.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Yes | 65c | 173.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 45c | 143$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed Yes | 57c | 107.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 43c | 96.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yes | 47c | 75.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Yes | 69c | 65.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed Yes | 44c | 53.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…370fbacked No | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 70c | 47.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Yes | 52c | 40.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 46c | 37.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…62f5backed No | 55c | 35.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 63c | 34.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 55c | 33.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked No | 51c | 30.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 54c | 25.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed No | 52c | 24.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 253 | 59.3%150 W · 103 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aurora to win 2-0?this page
- Aurora vs PlayTime: Draw (1-1)?No won
- PlayTime to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.