Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3828317fc91d6b7ed4e63e29f8aa5535b8d9fd85a95fcf574f077bc56f0b4e03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 47c | 2,596$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.07 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 2,493$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 66c | 1,948$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.8 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 1,336$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.72 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 71c | 1,260$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.02 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 36c | 1,187$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 911.46$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.51 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 79c | 866.51$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 779.76$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 705$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 63c | 673.44$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.64 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad17…fcadbacked No | 2c | 633.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 610.31$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 610$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.1 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 78c | 600.27$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 587.79$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 24c | 553.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.56 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 16c | 530.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 424.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 408.9$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 64c | 402.15$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 371.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 333.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 30c | 327.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 7c | 316.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 305$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 78c | 304.75$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 10c | 300.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 300.01$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 73c | 291.92$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 40c | 250.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 30c | 245.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 29c | 240.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 17c | 230.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.72 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 33c | 219.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 203.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 79c | 184.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 182.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 177.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 177.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked No | 79c | 172.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 172.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 64c | 168.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 19c | 167$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 166$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 35c | 163.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 163.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 160.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 153.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 151.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 145.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 144.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 53c | 139.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 75c | 136.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 37c | 135.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 133.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 132.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 131.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 41c | 125.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 122.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 22c | 121.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 119$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 118.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 117.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 24c | 117.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 17c | 113.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 112.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 59c | 111.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 37c | 109$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 54c | 108.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 32c | 104$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 103.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 103.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 99.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 36c | 99.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 96.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 36c | 96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 95.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 12c | 94.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 20c | 92.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 37c | 88.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 57c | 88.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 86.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 13c | 86.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 40c | 80.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 68c | 77.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 27c | 74.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 72.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 71.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 24c | 67.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.