Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347c42610736af9cb0d3fbe60f0ebdc40ef0dbf3affa44214b1299f2929df025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 3,126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 47c | 1,265$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.16 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…a5f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 1,107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 814.32$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 725.3$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 650$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 616.1$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.23 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 596.8$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 13c | 504.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 12c | 409.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 4c | 394.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 19c | 364.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 7c | 340$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 332.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 315.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 55c | 265.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 35c | 260.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 220$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…e786backed Yes | 5c | 201.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 195.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 189.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 179$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 26c | 178.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 173.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 20c | 169.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 38c | 166.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 39c | 159.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 63c | 158.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 8c | 151.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 150.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 143.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…9a66backed Yes | 34c | 133.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 133$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 38c | 127$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 117.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 22c | 112.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 111.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 106.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 103.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 15c | 102.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 101.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 33c | 100.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 37c | 96.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…42b1backed Yes | 33c | 90.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 88.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 18c | 86.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 53c | 85.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 85.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 19c | 83.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 17c | 83.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 63c | 79.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 31c | 79.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 78.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 66c | 77.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 76.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 74.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 72.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…0bf7backed No | 77c | 72.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 71.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 71.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 67.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 46c | 65.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…36c9backed Yes | 59c | 56.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 55.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 54.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…0969backed Yes | 41c | 53.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 69c | 51.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 47.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 33c | 46.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 62c | 44.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 33c | 42.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 40.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 38.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…c918backed No | 62c | 37.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…18afbacked No | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…4cd5backed No | 62c | 35.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.